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Holiday Spending Report

Adobe Digital Index publishes research on digital marketing and other topics of interest to senior marketing and e-commerce executives across industries. This holiday spending report is the most comprehensive and accurate report of its kind in industry. Predictions in past years have been within 2 percentage points.

Throughout this presentation, click the + icons to reveal the actual data and compare with our predictions.

How We Did It

Because Adobe Marketing Cloud powers 80% of the top 100 U.S. online retailers, driving $0.75 of every dollar spent, we were able to analyze 1 Trillion visits, and shopping cart trends of over 55 million products in order to understand shopping trends for the holiday season. Through those insights, and for the first time ever, we have produced predictive pricing curves that provide our prediction of everything from total spend on Cyber Monday to the top kids toys of the season. Happy Shopping!

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Thu
Thanksgiving
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Fri
Black Friday
30
Mon
Cyber Monday
Estimated Spending
$1.6B +
18% YoY increase
Estimated Spending
$2.7B +
15% YoY increase
Estimated Spending
$3B +
12% YoY increase

Predictions:

Even with consumers citing sharing payment information online as an obstacle, mobile shopping will overtake desktop in the 2015 holiday season.

Over the last two years, mobile has increased the amount of revenue it generates, with a predicted 29 cents on the dollar in 2015.

Within that 29 cents, 22 cents will come from iOS devices and the remaining 7 cents will come from Android devices.

iOS
22¢
Android

The best prices will be on Thanksgiving day, with an average discount of 27%.

Beware, out of stock incidents will increase by 37% on Thanksgiving, and peak on Cyber Monday.

Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday will offer the lowest shipping costs.

Consumers are 3x more likely to find a deal through a banner ad versus search

14% of consumers will find deals on social.

Toys

Saturday before Thanksgiving will offer the biggest single day price drop on toys, 17%. Cyber Monday will offer the lowest prices (20% discount), but out of stock items will surge up to 100%.

Electronics

Monday before Thanksgiving will offer the best deals for electronics, 18% discount, accompanied by low out of stock incidents. Lowest pricing will occur on Thanksgiving, 20% discount, but will have the highest out of stock incidents.

Jewelry

Best time to buy is on Thanksgiving. Out of stock incidents will be low, and prices will be at a 25% discount.

Apparel

The best prices will be offered on Thanksgiving Day, at up to a 27% discount, but that day will have the highest out of stock incidents.

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November
Happy Holidays!

Wearables

Apple Watch3 is top, then GoPro, followed by FitBit4.

Toys

BB-810 will lead. Barbie12, second American Girl11 doll, third.

Streaming

Apple TV3 will be ahead of Roku8 and Chromecast9.

Tablets

iPads3 will lead the category, followed by Kindle13 and iPad mini3.

Gaming

PS45 will lead, over Xbox6 and Wii. Minecraft1 and Halo 52 will be neck and neck as the top seller in games.

4K TVs

Sony has a strong lead over LG and Samsung.

1. “Minecraft” is a trademark of Mojang Synergies AB 2. “Halo 5” is a registered trademark of Microsoft Studios, Inc. 3. “Apple Watch,” “Apple TV,” “iPad,” and “iPad Mini” are registered trademarks of Apple Inc. 4. "Fitbit” is a registered trademark and service mark of Fitbit, Inc. 5. “PS4” is a registered trademark of Sony Computer Entertainment Inc 6. “Xbox One” is either a registered trademark or trademark of Microsoft Corporation in the United States and/or other countries 7. “Nintendo 3DS" is a registered trademark of Nintendo of America Inc. 8. “Roku” is a trademark and/or registered trademark of Roku, Inc. in the United States and other countries 9. © 2015 Google Inc. All rights reserved. “Chromecast” is a trademark of Google Inc. 10. “BB-8” is a registered trademark and/or copyright of Lucasfilm Ltd. 11. “American Girl” is a trademark of Disney Enterprises, Inc., 12. “Barbie” is a registered trademark of Mattel 13. “Kindle” is a trademark of Amazon.com, Inc., or its affiliates.